“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffett

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Auto Part Retailers Look Attractive After Pullback

The average age of a car in the United States is rising. It is now just over 10 years, while the average mileage on a passenger car is over 150,000. What does this mean for auto part retailers? Increasing demand and increasing profits. Companies such as AutoZone (AZO), O'Reilly's (ORLY), and Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) have been taking advantage of the increase in demand ever since in the financial crisis of 2008. Consumer confidence went to new lows and it seemed as though no one was willing to buy a new car. Thus, consumers had to stick with their unreliable old vehicles - meaning more visits to auto part specialists for routine check-ups and maintenance. With uncertain economic views and moderate consumer confidence, these specialty shops are seeing continuing increases in margins and higher net incomes.

One interesting aspect of these stocks are their low betas. Beta is a measure of risk, measuring performance in relation to the whole financial market, such as a benchmark like the DowJones or S&P 500. If a stock has a negative beta (i.e. < 0 ), then if the market is going down, then the negative beta stock will typically go up - hence the negative correlation, and vice versa. Average beta for this industry is right around 0.50, meaning a more conservative investment, and a good hedge against market downfalls.

Take a look at these charts after their recent pullbacks - a good entry point in my opinion.

(AZO)


 (ORLY)


(AAP)

Monday, January 3, 2011

10 Tips To Frugal Living in 2011

Here are some great tips to live more frugally in 2011:

  1. Be aware: Consumers often fail to open their eyes when spending. Be aware of package deals, low-cost items, and generics that offer virtually the same product. Take advantage of reward programs on necessary purchases such as groceries, or gasoline.
  2. Ask Yourself, Do I Really Need This?: Living frugally correlates to living within your means. Focus on your needs and not your wants. Sometimes it can be easy to take for granted what we have; be comfortable with what you already have.
  3. Avoid Racking Up Credit Card Debt: Do not spend more than you have. Although this may seem too easy to grasp, consumers often spend more than they can afford - banking on the hope of future income. Do not take these risks.
  4. Be Confident: We can often experience post-purchase anxiety and second guess ourselves after a purchase. Be confident in your consumer decision making process. Do not be afraid to cut coupons or buy the low-end brand. There are few differences between  bottom and top shelf products. 
  5. Invest In Your Future: With the government artificially stimulating the economy through Quantitative Easing 2, or 'QE2', equity markets are likely to stay stable or rise in the next year.
  6. Start Saving: Many banks are offering programs that encourage saving. U.S. Bank's S.T.A.R.T. program is one example. Put away 15-20% of your income if possible. Options include Roth IRAs, 401(k)'s, or a general investment portfolio.
  7. Exercise: You may be asking yourself, how does exercise relate to frugal living? Exercising on a regular basis will put you in a better state of mental health and consequently allow for better choices and confidence with your money.
  8. Avoid Eating Out: Depending on family size, wholesale grocers such as Sams Club or Costco can be a wise choice to buy in bulk and save on quantity. Nonetheless, eating at home can not only encourage better eating habits, it can also help in reducing the cost of living. Many eat out because of convenience and timeliness; do not fall into this habit.
  9. SlickDeals.net: This 'deal' website will help you save money on anything from a pair of shoes, to a new laptop. Other frugal aspects of this site include a 'Freebie' section and a 'Survey' section. Check out the site at www.slickdeals.net
  10. Drop Your Cable Plan: Many websites and online companies offer free television shows, such as www.Hulu.com, or simply ABC, NBC, CBS, and their respective sites. Cable not only encourages laziness, but can hinder your monthly expenses. You will notice a greater self-connection and find other ways to enjoy your time.